Predicting How New Ideas Change Life

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to make predictions about the future social, political, economic, cultural, and environmental impacts that may result from future scientific discoveries and technological innovations. A prediction is a reasonable guess about what will happen, backed by a reason. A scientific discovery is new knowledge about how the world works, such as learning which gene lets a plant survive with little water. A technological innovation is a new tool or method built from that knowledge, such as a truck that drives itself.

To predict impacts, think through five areas. Social impacts touch families, communities, and daily life. Political impacts touch laws and government. Economic impacts touch jobs, money, and businesses. Cultural impacts touch traditions, food, and language. Environmental impacts touch land, water, air, and wildlife. A weak prediction sounds like this: "Self-driving trucks will be great." It names no area, gives no reason, and leaves no room for problems. A strong prediction names an area, explains the reason with the word "because," and admits that some impacts could be good while others could be harmful.

Here is a technological innovation predicted across all five areas: self-driving trucks on Texas highways. A social impact is that some drivers may lose work because a computer does the driving, so families in towns along Interstate 35 might move away. A political impact is that the state may pass new laws because someone must decide who is at fault in a crash. An economic impact is that stores could sell goods for less because shipping costs drop. A cultural impact is that the tradition of the long-haul trucker and the busy truck stop might fade because fewer drivers pull over for the night. An environmental impact is that air pollution might fall because computers drive at steady speeds and waste less fuel.

Now a scientific discovery: scientists find a gene that lets wheat grow with little rain. A social impact is that fewer families may have to leave West Texas farming towns because steadier harvests keep work available, although larger farms might still buy out smaller ones, which could hurt some families. A political impact is that countries may argue over who owns the seeds because the discovery is valuable. An economic impact is that farmers could earn more because dry years no longer wipe out crops. A cultural impact is that bread may stay an everyday food because wheat remains affordable. An environmental impact is that farms might pump less water from underground because the wheat needs less, helping rivers and aquifers recover, but farmers might instead plant more acres and use just as much water as before. Notice that this last prediction names a good result and a harmful one, which is what makes it strong.

Try it: imagine a future discovery of a cheap way to turn Gulf Coast seawater into clean drinking water, and in your head predict one social, one political, one economic, one cultural, and one environmental impact, explaining each one with the word "because."